ONE MONTH DOES NOT A MARKET MAKE

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But January’s a Good Start

WINNIPEG – It has often been said that one month does not a market make. Yet here it is … January 2016 … and we only have one month to look at … so January is the market! And not to disappoint, the activity in the first 31 days does give us a lot to evaluate.

WinnipegREALTORS® was founded as The Winnipeg Real Estate Exchange in 1903 – and one of the founding Objects of the Corporation was to “… compile, record and publish statistics and acquire and distribute information respecting the real estate … business of its Members …”. So we’ve been looking at and interpreting market activity and statistics for 113 years.

Here’s how the New Year kicked off …

In terms of inventory, we have more listings available this January for buyers than we’ve had for the past 5 Januarys. More supply starts to change the sellers’ markets we’ve experienced since 2003/4 and brings more balance to the marketplace. Just recently we’ve seen a reduction in the number of multiple offers and sales over list price that became the norm in the sellers’ markets. Buyers can again exercise more due diligence by viewing more properties and making offers conditional on financing or home inspections than at the height of the market where demand was always exceeding supply.

At the end of January there were 3,406 listings available for viewing … up over 60% from the 2,125 listings available for sale in 2011.

There were 1,519 listings entered into the MLS® system in January, just 36 fewer than last January. But those 1,500 plus listings were 22% more than in January 2014 and 30% more than 2013!

And sales held their own at 571, 17 fewer than last January, but 6 more than 2014. One month is just too small a sample to see trends or make conclusions … but it appears that the market in Winnipeg remains healthy.

Dollar volume was $149 million this year, off 1.75% from last January’s $152 million … but up over January’s total for 2011 through 2014 inclusive.

“The numbers for January appear to reflect the Association’s forecast breakfast projections presented on January 27^th. Despite some of the negative headlines we see from national organizations trying to figure out trends and movements based on an over-weight emphasis on the Vancouvers, Torontos and Calgarys … in Winnipeg we tend to be less exposed to speculative influences like foreign investors and an economy based on a single resource like oil. So when you see headlines implying Winnipeg’s market is high risk or shows strong indications of problematic conditions … we should remember that real estate is local. The activity you see in our local MLS® stats can be relied upon.” said Stewart Elston, WinnipegREALTORS® 2016 President.

The forecast breakfast referenced by Elston showed that last year’s predictions were bang on and this year’s forecast continues to see the glass as half full.

Referring to the forecast, Elston states that “… with interest rates remaining at historical lows and very positive predictions from other analysts suggesting that everything from employment and confidence levels in Winnipeg and Manitoba are high, immigration is encouraging, and the province’s GDP and overall economy are all favourable … we can’t see any reason to predict that the local real estate market will be anything but stable.”

The most active price ranges in the Winnipeg’s single family residential market as recorded on the MLS® for January were between $200,000 and $249,999 and between $250,000 and $299,999, which combined accounted for 39% of sales. The average number of days on the market was 44 compared to 41 in 2015.

The most active price ranges in the condominium market were between $150,000 and $199,999 at 26%, which was the same percentage as sales between $250,000 and $299,999. But there were only 69 condo sales in January and this is such a small sample that no conclusions can yet be formulated. Average days on the market for condominiums came in at 62 days, on average 16 days longer than last year.

At the forecast breakfast, Association Market Analyst Peter Squire predicted that home sales through the MLS® will increase from 1 to 3% in 2016; home prices will rise from 0 to 2%; condo prices will be up the same 0 to 2%; and MLS® dollar volume will increase from 1 to 3%.

Looking for a Condo in Sage Creek?? We have a gorgeous listing at 5 Tansi Lane...... An incredible opportunity and a fantastic location within Sage Creek for just $379,900! Todd Lewys came out and did the following feature for us which was run in print (3/4 page) and online in WINNIPEG FREE PRESS HOMES!

Sometimes, a home's look can be deceiving. In some cases, it might look plain from the outside, yet be dynamite inside. In other instances, it might possess great curb appeal, but be rather unappealing once you step inside. Then -- on rare occasions -- a home's looks are a mere prelude to what awaits once you walk inside.

That's the case with the 1,665-square-foot two-storey townhome-style condominium found at 5 Tansi Lane in Sage Creek, said Cheryl Thurston of Realty Executives First Choice.

"This is a bright, spacious, well-maintained and beautifully upgraded Randall-built home in a premium location," said Thurston. "Its design (the townhome was built in 2009) was ahead of its time. There's just so much open space, and each area feels that much bigger and brighter because ceilings are nine-feet high; the high ceilings then allowed for the placement of huge windows everywhere."

Wow factor is front and centre the moment you enter the home. First, the foyer is demarcated in luxurious fashion by gorgeous taupe/beige tile with a circular (chocolate brown) tile inlay. Next, a dramatic natural maple staircase angles its way smartly up to the second floor to the left of the foyer.

Then, there's the great room, said Thurston's sales partner, Jon Wiebe. "It's hard to know where to begin, it's such an amazing space," he said. "Both the family room and dining room are defined by (white) pillared entrances with maple capped one-third walls. The family room and dining room are separated neatly by a gorgeous three-sided gas fireplace, the family room has a huge picture window that lets in tons of natural light, and the natural maple hardwoods just gleam."

He added that the great room's available space has been well-distributed. "The entire area is 24.5 feet by 11.75 feet. The dining room is huge, and easily holds a table for eight, with room to extend it out, if necessary. On the other side of the fireplace is the family room, which offers plenty of room for furniture and all kinds of natural light. It's a perfect area for entertaining."

Thurston said the adjacent eat-in kitchen -- which also contains a handy main floor powder room -- is equally spectacular. "It's absolutely huge, with room for a table for four and door that leads out to a backyard with large deck, double garage and fencing on either side," she said. "There's also an island with raised eating bar for two, tons of natural maple cabinetry (with dark maple trim), gorgeous tile backsplash, under-cabinet lighting, corner pantry and newer stainless-steel appliances that come with the home."

Heading upstairs to the home's second floor is a pleasure thanks to the aforementioned natural maple staircase, which adds another welcome dash of style. Arrival at the top reveals a generous -- and light-bathed -- landing around which two bedrooms and a four-piece main bath revolve to the left of the stairs.

Meanwhile, the master suite is set down its own seven-foot hallway -- created by the a one-third maple capped wall that borders the stairs -- on the right-hand side. The design creates a layout that offers the best of both worlds: ample space to move between spaces, yet the master bedroom is a private, defined space.

"The two secondary bedrooms are both a good size and come with good storage space," said Thurston. "As is usual with Randall Homes, the bedrooms have huge windows. That allows all kinds of natural light to spill into the landing. Even more light pours in from a huge picture window in the master suite."

Not only is the master suite filled with light, but it's also filled with luxury and utility. The luxury comes in the form of a spacious ensuite that's been outfitted with an oval soaker tub, four-foot shower and natural maple vanity; the utility is derived from the walk-in closet. "It's not only huge, but it comes with a large window and all kinds of wire racks for storage," said Wiebe. "The master bedroom is awesome in every respect."

The same can be said of the home's lower level. Fully developed and offering about 670 sq. ft. of livable space, it's at once luxurious and practical.

"You don't always have this much space to develop in the lower level of a townhome-style condo, but this one does," Thurston said. "It's been beautifully utilized with a rec room that's been pre-wired for surround sound - there's a media area, games area and wet/dry bar -- plus a wing with exercise room/office, laundry room and gorgeous three-piece bath with custom tile/glass shower with rain shower head."

Finally, there's the home's location, which is exceptional, said Wiebe. "Its location is one of the best in the community. Access in and out of the area is quick and easy, you're a two-minute walk from Sage Creek Village (shopping/services area), walking/cycling trails and wetlands are just steps from the front door, and you're tucked away on a quiet street. It's a move-in-ready home that's ideal for singles, young couples, families or empty nesters."

lewys@mts.net

Hit our "PROPERTIES" tab above for more details on this great Sage Creek Condo!

2015 SALES SOLID WITH PRICES HOLDING FIRM

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December Sales Up 4%

WINNIPEG -   2015 finished on a strong note.  Following on the heels of a record sales month for November, December sales of 642 were up 4% from last December. They are the third highest for this month, and are only behind the best sales years ever by a very modest amount. 

“It is really quite remarkable how close our year-end sales have been in the last few years including our highest sales year in 2007,” said WinnipegREALTORS® outgoing president David MacKenzie. “They all tend to hover just above or close to the 13,000 level and in percentage terms we are only talking a little over 1% when we compare the 12,927 sales recorded this year to the 13,079 in 2007.”

While sales and even prices have shown consistent and similar results, listings have not chartered the same path. The number of listings entered on the MLS® were 24,603 in 2015, up 7% over 2014, and 41% over the 10-year average of 17,433. With an increase in listings but sales remaining consistent, the market’s inventory has also been rising month to month. This is borne out in having over 5 months of inventory available going into 2016.

“Buyers are in a great position to take advantage of a current market which is providing a large number and array of properties for sale and ones which remain some of the most affordably-priced in the country,” said Mackenzie. “Sellers need to take heart knowing WinnipegREALTORS® is still enjoying one of the best sales years it has ever had. They need to be aware however that more competition for those sales creates more downward pressure on prices since supply is outstripping demand.”

An indicator of stiffer competition for selling your home is evident when you see the number of single family home sales selling below list price.  Properties below list accounted for  65% in 2014 but now represent 75% of the market in 2015. In December alone 87% of all single family home sales sold below list price. Of the single family or residential-detached listings which sold in 2015, on average they achieved 98% of the total list price. 

When 2015 was all said and done a new MLS® dollar volume record was established at $3.5 billion. This resulted in a 2% increase over 2014. Despite sales being higher this December from December 2014, dollar volume actually fell 2.89% when compared to December 2014.

It was a tale of different stories when it came to the two primary MLS® property types. Residential-detached performed exceedingly well with sales and dollar volume up 3 and 5% respectively in comparison to 2014. On the other hand, condominiums never recovered from an unexpectedly poor first quarter where sales were off by 20%. By year end this deficit was cut in half but nonetheless represented a 10% decrease compared to 2014. 

The average sales price for residential-detached was $293, 992, a 2% increase over 2014. The average condominium sales price showed a 1% decrease from $239,171 in 2014 to $236,204 this year.

Residential-detached represented nearly 3 out of every 4 properties which sold on MLS® in 2015. Condominium market share was 12.5%. 25% of residential-detached sales in 2015 happened outside Winnipeg in the capital region. The southwest quadrant of Winnipeg was second with 19% of total sales.

The most active price range for residential-detached sales in 2015 was $250,000-$299,999 (22% of total sales), followed by the $200,000-$249,999 (17%) and the $300,000-$349,999 (14%).  Average days on the market for residential-detached sales was 33 days, 3 days slower than 2014. The highest-priced residential-detached sale was $2.7 million. The least expensive sale was $8,000.

The most active price range for condominiums in 2015 was $150,000-$199,999 (30% of total sales), followed by the $200,000-$249,999 (20%) and the $250,000-$299,999 (18%). Average days on market for condominium sales was 49 days, 9 days off the pace set in 2014. The highest-priced condominium sale was $950,000. The least expensive sale was $57,000.

Looking ahead to 2016, Manitoba’s GDP is expected to increase to 2.3% which is an improvement over the expected increase of 2.0% in 2015. In keeping with one of the country’s best GDP’s, Manitoba’s employment is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2015 and 1% in 2016. This will keep its unemployment rate below 6%. Manitoba had Canada’s second highest population increase of 1% in 2015.

“While we do have an abundance of listings to work our way through at the beginning of the year, the good news is Winnipeg’s and Manitoba’s economy is performing relatively well,” said MacKenzie. “A most recent survey by CIBC shows Manitobans are most confident about their state of finances so this is another positive indicator that they will continue to take advantage of an excellent selection of properties for sale at some of the most affordable prices in the country.”

Established in 1903, WinnipegREALTORS® is a professional association representing over 1,850 real estate brokers, salespeople, appraisers, and financial members active in the Greater Winnipeg Area real estate market.  Its REALTOR® members adhere to a strict code of ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) designed exclusively for REALTORS®. WinnipegREALTORS® serves its members by promoting the benefits of an organized real estate profession.  REALTOR®, MLS® and Multiple Listing Service® are trademarks owned and controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association and are used under licence.